(Photo Credit: Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
Pick 1: (7-10) Carolina Panthers (via Bears) – QB Bryce Young (Alabama)
Our source have remained dug in that the Panthers are attempting to trade up for the 1st overall selection in this year’s draft and they have their sights set on Bryce Young. Chicago will likely ask for a 1st and 2nd rounder from this year’s draft and a 1st from next ear’s draft, but they already have their franchise qb with Justin Fields, and their top needs can be found later the first round.. Carolina selects Bryce Young, a players they can rebuild their offense around and he will make an immediate impact for the Panthers.
Young is a bit of an undersized tweener at the next level, so right away strength training will be an immediate focus come OTAs. Aside from that, Young is an amazing talent who can avoid sacks, has solid arm strength and accuracy, which can be used as a weapon in the read option. His only other concerns are that he rushes his check downs, which in college he hasn’t paid for as consistently as he will at the next level. His amazing display during Bowl Week moved him from our top boom or bust pick to the 2nd best overall QB prospect in this draft. He has excellent arm strength and near pinpoint accuracy for his size. His agility in the pocket and speed when forced to scramble may be unmatched in this draft. Carolina gets their franchise quarterback and a chance to finally rebuild around a player that can make them legitimate contenders with his addition alone.
Pick 2: (3-13-1) Houston Texans – QB CJ Stroud (Ohio State)
Houston could use an immediate upgrade off the edges, but clearly, using this selection on a franchise QB trumps any non-BPA prospect with the 2nd overall selection. Stroud should be the top QB taken in this draft class since he has the highest ceiling of the available QB prospects in this draft. Stroud has the prototypical 6’3 height most teams like, which allows for less deflected passes at the line and he also has the best field downfield vision within this class.
Also, while not as fast or agile as Young, the one thing that helps with this selection is the fact Stroud has excellent footwork in the pocket and his awareness under pressure is the best we’ve seen enter the draft since 2018. He has excellent accuracy in short to mid range, and great accuracy on deeper throws. He could add some bulk, and polish his throwing motion, but overall he’s the best prospect at the position in this year’s class, and he has officially declared for the draft.
Pick 3: (4-13) Arizona Cardinals – Edge Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama)
In our Wild Card mock, we had the rebuilding Cardinals opting to trade Murray and drafting an upgrade for their franchise QB, but in our Divisional mock we went with the higher probability that they keep Murray and select the BPA to bolster their weak defensive line production. In this mock, thanks to Chicago trading out of the 1st overall selection, the top edge rusher drops to the 3rd overall selection.
Anderson Jr. has the quick pop, hand motion, and agility to be an elite pass rusher at the next level and he has a good football IQ for a defensive lineman. He’s the best prosect to enter the draft at the position since Myles Garret, and has virtually the same skills set. Anderson Jr. should make an All-Pro difference during his rookie season.
Pick 4: (4-12-1) Indianapolis Colts – QB Will Levis (Kentucky)
Indianapolis has many needs to cover in this draft. They are in perfect position to draft a franchise quarterback to build around to regain their potential playoff contending status.
Levis has many of the same tangibles as Brady or Rodgers when they were drafted. Pro typical build, good height to see targets and excellent field vision when checking down targets. Out of the three top quarterback prospects, Levis has the best patience in the pocket and is the best at making plays under pressure. Also, he has deceptive agility in the pocket. He can dance around to avoid a sack and still has the composure to hit an open target downfield. His potential career ceiling value could make him the top pick in the draft following his rookie season.
Pick 5: (9-8) Seattle Seahawks (via Seahawks) – EDGE Myles Murphy (Clemson)
Seattle cashed in on this trade. Wilson has struggled in his role with the Broncos and had been instrumental in the Seahawks winning this trade. Seattle was hoping one of the top three quarterbacks, but all three are off the board in this mock. Instead, they opt to add he 2d best edge rusher in this draft to their struggling pass rush.
Murphy is a freak of nature. He sets and pops off the snap with his ears pinned and has excellent strength balance, agility, and skills set to honestly consider him an All-Pro talent straight out of the gate. He’s quick and agile enough to be utilized in short zone coverages off the edges. He has good handwork for an edge, tremendous speed and quick burst off the snap, and might be the best overall defensive talent in this draft.
Pick 6: (9-8) Detroit Lions (via Rams) – EDGE Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech)
In our last mock the Lions landed their coveted franchise QB, but this week, once again, all three of the top passers are off the boards which means the Lions will focus on upgrading their lethargic pass rush. They missed out on Murphy but they get the 2nd best edge rusher in the draft and his ceiling value has him as the top pass rusher in the draft.
Wilson’s stock has been rising on most boards, and rightfully so because Wilson is deceptively fast off the snap on passing downs, and uses his hands well to shed blockers in both pass rush and run support. While he has the tools to be a top five pick, what keeps him from moving up our boards into the top five is the fact he put up most of his key numbers against lesser competition, but when lined up against the top teams in the Big XII he struggled to produce the same output. He will need to polish his game a bit, but he clearly has worked his way into our top 10 and isn’t a far cry overall from Anderson Jr.
Pick 7: (6-11) Las Vegas Raiders – OT Peter Skoronski (Northwestern)
Las Vegas has many key areas of need at key positions. One of their biggest needs is at offensive tackle, where they could use an upgrade at both bookends. Whether they opt to keep or trade Carr during the off-season, their starting quarterback will require improved pass protection next season, while their ground game could use better gaps to daylight.
Skoronski has it all, from quick sets and pops off the snap in pass protection, to his brute strength in the trenches to open lanes to daylight for the ground game. He has excellent handwork off the snap to help neutralize most opposing pass rushers off the edges and has good recognition to identify stunt blitz packages, allowing him to make adjustments on the fly. He is the purest talent to enter the draft at the position since Joe Thomas.
Pick 8: (7-10) Atlanta Falcons – DT Jalen Carter (Georgia)
In our last mock the Falcons took the top receiver in the draft, but this week due to situational picks, star DT Carter falls to the 8th overall selection and the Falcons waste no time making this pick. One area that hurt the Falcons chase for the NFC Title was they lacked strength and agility in the trenches. Carter has both and then some as the Falcons land the steal of the draft.
Carter has everything a coach could ask for from a defensive tackle. He has deceiving agility for a player his size, along with excellent lower and upper body strength. He has a quick burst off the snap on passing downs and sheds blocks well to make an impact in run support. HIs greatest value will be his brute strength and agility off the snap, as he gives 150% on every down and will demand double teams, which will open space off the edges within their pass rush.
Pick 9: (3-14) Chicago Bears (via Panthers) – WR Quinton Johnston (TCU)
Chicago is in the perfect position to draft Justin Fields a true 1WR, and they have the top pick and BPA starting them square in the face. Not only is he the top receiver in this draft, he also carries a fair comparison to the one and only Megatron.
Johnston is a very physical, but he’s also a very fast talent. He has the frame to mix it up and win most battles for the ball downfield. His agility also makes him dangerous on short to mid range crossing routes. He should have no trouble becoming a star at the next level, a bonus if they can land defensive and offensive line upgrades in the remaining rounds. His biggest turning point is his leaping ability., couple that with his abilities listed above and it’s not hard to see why Megatron is his best comparison. His ceiling is actually much higher than the 9th overall selection.
Pick 10: (14-3) Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints) – CB Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State)
Philadelphia can go one of two ways with this selection. They can go after shut down corner or they can grab the top receiver available in the class. While grabbing the top receiver is a solid option, they do have the best shut down corner still on the board, and they could use an upgrade in their secondary.
Porter Jr. is one of the more pure and natural talents in this draft. He is a ballhawk who can cover the top receivers effectively at the next level. He is very fast off the snap and likes to get physical when fighting for the ball. He has good leaping abilities to go along with excellent read recognition in both man and zone packages. His biggest knock is he doesn’t get too involved in run support. We’ve had his ceiling value as a top 5 pick, so it’s no surprise that he debuts in our top ten this week and he could be a top 5 pick before the draft.
Pick 11: (7-10) Tennessee Titans – WR Jordan Addison (USC)
Tennessee needs depth within their receiving core more than they need offensive or defensive line depth. Tannehill needs fresh blood that can find ways to stretch the field, not only to benefit their passing game, but also keep opposing defenses from flooding the box on rushing downs. Tennessee is desperate to land a potential 1WR, so they make our first reach pick in this mock.
Addison is a physical runner who doesn’t shy from contact. He is a blazer downfield, and he effectively runs the deep routes. One of his key attributes is his footwork and agility off the snap, along with quick cuts on crossing routes. He hits the gas once he catches a pass, so he can be an effective slot, or the potential future 1WR or 2WR they need to take their offensive production to the next level next season.
Pick 12: (3-13-1) Houston Texans (via Browns) – CB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon)
Houston can go one of two ways with this selection. They can go after a receiver, or they can grab the top shut down corner in the draft. Unfortunately, in this mock, Addison and Johnston are off the board, so the opt to add a needed upgrade to their secondary.
Gonzalez is a phenomenal talent that is flying up our draft board. He has the complete skills set to be a dominating 1CB at the next level, but also has the speed to accomplish the same as a 2CB. He is very physical off the snap and enjoys jamming receivers to force opposing quarterback to check down, which causes disruption within opposing passing lanes. His stock is rising and we’ve been saying his value could top out as a top 10 pick and this week he debuts in our top 15.
Pick 13: (7-10) New York Jets – OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State)
New York’s top need entering the draft is adding young talent upgrades to their receiving core, unfortunately the top prospects are off the board. Fortunately, their next biggest need is the BPA for this selection. If the Jets can’t get another weapon downfield for Wilson to improve his numbers, then their biggest need is adding more pass protection off the edges. Also, their ground game could use a lift from better off-tackle blocking to find daylight in the trenches.
Johnson Jr. is an amazing talent. Like Skoronski, there’s not much anyone can knock about his overall level of performance. He gives 150% on every play, and has superb balance of strength and agility. He pops, snaps, and digs with exceptional balance off of every snap. His only knock is he can use to improve his hand work at the next level. He started off as a top 20 selection on our boards, but he’s now a legit top 15 pick as we move closer to the draft.
Pick 14: (8-9) New England Patriots – CB Kelee Ringo (LSU)
New England’s success hit a roadblock over the final three weeks of the season and now has the Patriots in prime position to fill their biggest need, which is landing a 1WR talent for Mac Jones to target downfield. Unfortunately, in this mock, the top targets are off the board for this selection, so they go with their next biggest need entering the draft and add a shutdown corner to their secondary.
Ringo’s the perfect corner is most respects. He’s a ballhawk and has the speed to cover any receiver at the next level, and can also be utilized at safety due to his size and toughness. Aside from being a shutdown corner, he also likes to mix it up in run support and he never shies away from contract. His biggest knock is he could use some coaching to improve letdowns in zone coverage, but the kid has a good play recognition for a corner and is coachable.
Pick 15: (8-9) Green Bay Packers – OT Broderick Jones (Georgia)
Green Bay needs to bolster their receiving core and i rumored to be talking with the Eagles about the 10 overall selection. Should they decide to not trade, which is the scenario we went with, they have a chance to add one of the better offensive tackles in the draft and it’ a position the Packers also sorely need an upgrade at for next season.
Jones is the anchor within Georgia’s offensive line and he is the best prospect the university has placed in the draft at the position. His speed and agility is top notch for an offensive tackle and he has the strength to dominate defenders routinely at the next level. His stock is rising sharply, so the Jets are quick to select him as he covers a huge need and is also the BPA for this selection. He is the purest athlete at the position in this draft, so his stock may rise into the top 10 on our boards in future mocks.
Pick 16: (8-8-1) Washington Commanders – DT Bryan Breese (Clemson)
Washington was hoping one of the top receivers or offensive tackles would drop this far, but those top prospects are off the board. A dynamic corner, which is another critical area of need is available so they reach a couple of picks to add a stud to their secondary would be their next move, but those top picks are off the boards as well. So they take the BPA and end Bresee’s drop in this mock.
Breese is a beast in the trenches and thrives in run support. He’s deceptively agile for a big man, and has the speed to also be effective within their pass rush. The question that’s dropping his stock is can he remain healthy long enough to make a dent at the next level? Very high ceiling, but injury concerns present a very low floor value, making him our boom or bust pick of the first round.
Pick 17: (9-8) Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Cam Smith (South Carolina)
Despite their record, Pittsburgh only has a few key gaps to fill to regain their status as a legit playoff contenders. Their top needs are along their offensive and defensive lines, but with the top prospects off the board for this pick, they turn their attention to upgrading their secondary.
Smith has the skills set to be a legit shut down corner at the next level. He jams receivers well off the snap and has the speed to cover most receivers at the next level. He tends to suffer lapses in coverage both in man and zone packages and struggles to recover once beaten whether directly off the snap or downfield. He also doesn’t mix it up in run support, so he comes with a buyer’s beware, but the Steelers have a history of turning young defenders into star players. Smith has a good ceiling, but he also has a low floor value too. We rank him as a first day prospect, but also believe he may suffer the biggest first day drop in the draft.
Pick 18: (9-8) Detroit Lions – TE Michael Mayer (Notre Dame)
Detroit used their first selection in the draft their franchise quarterback. They turn their attention to to solidifying their receiving core. The top receiver for this pick are already off the board, but they find a hybrid type tight end still on the board.
Mayer has solid speed for a tight end and his agility makes him hard to cover on crossing routes or short distance pass plays. He can be used as a vertical weapon cause he gets a quick burst off the snap and pins is ears back to cause separation down field, which makes him a deadly target for opposing secondaries and linebackers to defend. His only knock is he doesn’t play to his full strength for 60 minutes. This can be corrected with some coaching.
Pick 19 – (8-9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – IOL O’Cyrus Torrence (Florida)
Tampa Bay could use this selection to reach for Tom Brady’s future successor since Brady retired (again!), coupled with the fact this draft’s quarterback class out side of the top three prospects isn’t as strong as next off-season’s class, so the Bucs choose to add depth to their interior offensive line, an are that needs some serious upgrades
Torrence is a mammoth of a prospect at the position and his current late to mid first round ceiling value could top out as a top 15 pick pick in the upcoming draft. He has bullish strength and surprising agility for a player his size. His size also keeps opposing interior defenders from making much of an impact and he’s uses the same skills pushing his weight forward on rushing downs. Tampa’s ground game will hugely benefit from his addition, while their starting QB will appreciate having more time and less pressure in the pocket on passing downs.
Pick 20: (9-8) Seattle Seahawks – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
Seattle landed the top pass rushing edge in the draft with the 5th overall selection and turns their attention to adding a true 2WR opposite of DK Metcalf. They could use this selection to reach for Richardson, but at this point if Richardson didn’t pan out, it would be a wasted pick with the BPA filling their next biggest need entering this off-season.
Smith-Njigba is a dual use receiver cause he can be utilized both as a deep threat and slot receiver at the next level. He has the speed to stretch the field, excellent hands and concentration. He has excellent field vision in space. He’s not the most physical receiver, and he may never become a 1WR at the next level, but a very trustworthy 2WR or SLR, something the Seahawks would like to add to their future depth. He comes with a buyer’s beware due to injuries, but he has the skills set to be an All-Pro at the next level. Due to these injury concerns his stock drops out of the top 15, but he has a top five ceiling if he can remain healthy.
Pick 21: (9-8) Miami Dolphins – Forfeited
Pick 22: (10-7) Los Angeles Chargers – OT Anton Harrison (Oklahoma)
Los Angeles has many key positions needing upgrades heading into the off-season despite their record. The Chargers top need is to find upgrades for either tackle position to help bolster their offensive line. They find a stud still on the board for the 22nd overall selection.
Harrison is a mammoth with good agility for his size. He’s no push over and will be able to duel with any opposing edge rusher, or stunt sweeper at the next level. He pops and sets very quickly, and he has good footwork and push to benefit both the pass and ground game. There’s not many weaknesses to his game, so his value will rise over time, so Los Angeles finding him available this deep into the first round is a virtual gift.
Pick 23: (10-7) Baltimore Ravens – RB Bijan Robinson (Texas)
Baltimore could go one of many different directions with this selection. They could add interior depth to their offensive line, an edge pass rusher or a shut down corner, all of which will be areas of need entering this draft. Their running game has faltered the past couple of seasons due to injures, so they opt to take the best running back prospect in this class.
Robinson is a beast, and hands down the best prospect to enter the draft since Jonathan Taylor. He is extremely fast, but not just in north/south lanes, he also has amazing agility and can effectively gain yards east/west as well. He also has dynamic strength that often gets over looked, and can shed contact and bulldoze opposing tacklers for additional yards. While it may seem like a stretch in comparison, his skills set and production on the field could rival those of Nick Chubb’s, but with more agility and speed.
Pick 24: Minnesota Vikings – CB Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)
Minnesota put a stop to Cam Smith’s drop due to prior situational pick sin this mock. The Vikings’ secondary could use fresh blood and a shut down corner to keep them atop the NFC North.
Witherspoon has raced up our boards and is a top level talent with top five output for his ceiling. He works well off the snap and is very physical in run support. While not a burner, he still has the speed to cover most 1WRs or SLRs at the next level. He never gives up when beaten, and is a solid coverage talent in the draft with ballhawk skills and will be a dominant corner at the next level. His stock won’t remain this high in the 1st round so the Broncos luck out finding him available this deep into the first round.
Pick 25: (9-8) Jacksonville Jaguars – DS Brian Branch (Alabama)
Jacksonville has enjoyed a good amount of success this season and their young core already has them competing at a Super Bowl contending level. They could use upgrades along their offensive line and receiving core, but they opt to fill one of their top needs entering the draft and add a dynamic playmaking safety to their secondary.
Branch is the most complete safety on our boards, surpassing Johnson as the first safety selected in the draft. He is excellent with run support, as he hits the lanes with his quickness and makes devastating hits. He is also equally effective in pass coverage despite his stats and is the most balanced safety in the draft. His performance in the Sugar Bowl has only helped his stock jump and he will be a top 20 prospect as the draft draws closer. A fair long-term comparison would be Ed Reed with a touch of Steve Atwater.
Pick 26: (9-7-1) New York Giants – EDGE Isiah Foskey (Notre Dame)
New York has enjoyed a surge during the past couple of weeks of the season. Despite this success, they still have glaring holes to fill entering the draft, with their top need being adding an anchor to their offensive line. Unfortunately those top prospects are off the board, so the Giants opt to added a needed pass rusher off the edges.
Foskey has all the tools and talents to be top 15 pick, but his lack of production against top end talents keeps him as a higher pick in the first round. He might not be the most agile edge rusher in the draft, but he is explosive enough off the snap to get past opposing tackles. He has excellent hand work to shed blocks, but he could use to improve his upper body strength too at the next level. He has a good understanding of the game and also hits the gaps hard in run support. He will bring the immediate upgrade that the Giants’ pass rush needs to rebuild their improving defensive unit.
Pick 27: (12-5) Dallas Cowboys – WR Kayshon Boutte (LSU)
Dallas is in a unique position to take the BPA at any of the key positions to help bolster their already Super Bowl contending roster. In past mocks we had the Cowboys taking IOL Torrence with this selection, but his value has risen into the lower 20’s range on our board, so he os already off the board in this mock. Dallas adds a potential All-Pro level receiver and he may be the gem pick of the first round.
Boutte can throttle past any corner at the next level. He has burner speed, but his playmaking ability makes him one of the better 1WR options for a higher first round team to satisfy their receiving core. He is hard to cover on crossing routes and his footwork can leave opposing corners icing their ankles. He’s not a good blocker on rushing downs and he has concentration concerns, which have resulted in dropped passes. He is very coachable and those concerns are correctable. His floor is a mid 2nd round pick, but his ceiling can top out as a top 10 return value.
Pick 28: Buffalo Bills – LB Trenton Simpson (Clemson)
Buffalo could use upgrades within their middle third., so they turn their attention to to solidifying their linebacking core with this selection and find the general of Clemson’s defense still available with the 28th overall selection.
Simpson has it all for a linebacker, top end speed, excellent lateral and vertical agility, makes hard hits, loves to initiate contact and is effective in short to mid zone coverages. His skills set also will allow the Lions to use him as an interior backer on situational downs. He will be a consistent playmaker and gives the Bills defense the leader it needs to usher their defense into the future as legitimate contenders. Durability and a lack of any legitimate pass rush skills have dropped his value, nut he will likely be utilized and inside linebacker at the next level.
Pick 29: (12-4) Cincinnati Bengals – CB Clark Phillips III (Utah)
Cincinnati has very few holes that need to be filled, but their top area of concern is their secondary. They need upgrades at nearly each position and find a dynamic playmaker. They find our top ranked corner sill on the board and add a player that will keep them competing at a Super Bowl level.
Phillips III is a dynamic corner and play maker on defense. He has speed off the snap, and is rarely beaten by opposing receivers, but recovers quicky if beaten on routes. He doesn’t shy from contact in run support, and can cover most 1WR, 2WR, or SLRs at the next level. He could add some bulk to be more effective at the next level, but overall, he will bring an immediate impact to the Bengals’ secondary. Phillips’ stock is rising, and he could become a top 20 pick heading into the draft, so the Bengals waste little time getting this generational corner off the board.
Pick 30: (7-10) New Orleans Saints – QB Anthony Richardson (Florida)
New Orleans needs helps all across their offensive unit. Primality they need an new potential franchise QB, and they opt to take a chance on one of the brighter quarterbacks out of the SEC this season.
Richardson has a good arm, and has solid accuracy. He has a pro-typical fame and while he may not be a burner, he knows how to dance his way out of pressure while still having the poise to find an open target downfield. His accuracy and tendency to throw picks keeps him at a late first to early second round pick on our boards, but the need for QBs is great enough that his value may increase by default. The Saints scoop him up quickly in this mock.
Pick 31: (14-3) Kansas City Chiefs – EDGE BJ Ojulari (LSU)
Kansas City could use a dynamic edge pass rusher with this selection and they find one still on the board this deep into the first round, and this kid could be the steal of the draft if he lives up to his true potential.
Ojulari isn’t the fastest prospect off the snap, but he motors well and had enough speed to get past opposing tackles at the next level. He has the best hand work to avoid blocks in the draft. He loves to mix it up in run support and hits the gaps hard against opposing run games. His speed is a concern that keeps him locked at a late first round to early second round pick, but his overall abilities and skills set could top out with a top 15 return value. He is a perfect scheme fit for the Chiefs.
Pick 32: (14-3) Philadelphia Eagles – DS Antonio Johnson (Texas A&M)
Philadelphia landed the steal of the draft with their first of two first round selections. Now they turn their attention to adding a playmaking safety to their secondary.
Johnson is a beast in run support. He hits the gaps hard, and rotates well to make a good impact on opposing rushing downs. He’s not very prolific in coverage, but his wide range of skills in run support keeps him in our first round discussion. They could make a big reach for OT Jones with this selection, but Johnson has the higher ceiling with a potential top 10 value.
gridironpredictions.net 